"Super Saturday" at Belmont

This Saturday is being billed as "Super Saturday" at Belmont Park, and in a way it could also be considered a type of "Dirt Championship" day and "Non-Rock-Hard-Turf Championship" day. As has been previously mentioned, the Breeder's Cup is being held at Santa Anita for the second straight year. Santa Anita features a synthetic main track which many horses who normally perform well on dirt do not take to too kindly. The turf course at Santa Anita is also very firm with very little give due to the California weather at this time of year.

For those horses who may prefer alternate conditions than those offered by the Breeder's Cup, this Saturday at Belmont provides a nice variety of Grade 1 races for 5 different categories.

First up will the 9 furlong Beldame Stakes for the ladies on the main track. Only 5 horses are entered, and Music Note will be an overwhelming favorite with Unbridled Belle looming as her main competition. Originally, Icon Project was supposed to appear in this race, however, her path has been re-routed to Keeneland for the Grade 1 Spinster Stakes next weekend. Keeneland has a synthetic track, and her connections though it wiser to give the synthetic a try before the Breeder's Cup to see how she handles it.

After the Beldame will come the 6 furlong Vosburgh Stakes for the boys. Fabulous Strike, the leading sprinter on the east coast, looks like the one to beat. He is an absolute beast at 6 furlongs with his ability to fly through the first half of the race and still have enough in the tank for the stretch drive. Four horses will oppose him, three of which seem to have at the most a decent shot of defeating the favorite. Kodiak Kowboy has squared off against Fabulous Strike before, but the only time he was able to get the better of him was in the 7 furlong Carter Handicap. Munnings, the lone 3-year old in the field, and Go Go Shoot both have a chance based on their form over the course of the year. The 15-1 longshot Peace Chant completes the field.

Next up will be the 10 furlong Flower Bowl Invitational for the ladies on the grass. Pure Clan is the likely favorite with Dynaforce close behind. If Dynaforce is able to set a nice, easy pace on the front end, she will be tough to beat. However, the presence of another speedster, Criticism, will make that a difficult task. Not far behind in terms of chances is Carribean Sunset, who came just a hair short of defeating divisional leader Forever Together last time out in the Grade 1 Diana Stakes at Saratoga.

The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at 12 furlongs on the grass for the boys will be Gio Ponti's attempt at a remarkable five straight Grade 1 victories. Due to the fact that the ground will likely have some give in it, his only competition appears to be the old warrior, Grand Couturier. Grand Couturier won this race last year by an impressive 10 1/2 lengths and he is at his best when the course has received some rain. Gio Ponti has never had to race this far, however, he appeared to have plenty left towards the end of his previous races.

Lastly we have the Jockey Club Gold Cup at 10 furlongs on the dirt for the boys. Summer Bird will be taking his first crack at older horses following his victories in the Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes and second place finish to super-filly Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell. He will likely go off as the favorite, but he is anything but a sure thing. Multiple-course-record setter Quality Road is looking to regain his form from earlier in the year when he was on the triple crown trail. He was sidelined for several months and has had two good prep races to prepare for this spot. If he turns in a huge effort, no one will be surprised. Macho Again got closer to defeating Rachel Alexandra than anyone else in recent history, so he naturally has a good chance since she will not be appearing in the starting gate. Asiatic Boy won multiple stakes overseas and has run very respectably since moving to the states. Dry Martini won the Suburban Handicap on this same track earlier this year and if he steps back up to that form, he will also be tough.

This quintet of races may have little effect on the Breeder's Cup, but it is an important day nonetheless in terms of purse sizes and the quality of the horses involved. Also scheduled for this weekend is the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. Perhaps the second most famous race in the world, "The Arc" is Europe's most prestigious race, as is evidenced by it's nearly $6 million purse. Sea The Stars will surely go off as the favorite (as long as the ground isn't too soggy for his liking), as he is being hailed as one of the best horses to race in Europe over the past decade. There is also a strong chance that he will come across the pond to compete in the Breeder's Cup following his race in France, and that would surely add some much needed flair to Breeder's Cup Day.

The Return Of The Blog

So, it has been nearly two months since I've posted. Saratoga and Del Mar have come and gone, and along with them, the end of the summer. I would like to apologize for my lack of content over the past eight weeks. I didn't think anyone was actually reading this thing, then, lo-and-behold, I was actually asked by more than a few people what had happened to the blog. So, I've decided to start it up again. You will notice that the "Lock of the Week" is no more. This was a poor idea from the start since I by no means am an expert handicapper, nor do I claim to be. The section should have been called "Geoff's-even-money-or-less Pick of the Week". Somehow, I don't think that would have proved too popular or useful either. Anyway, Thoroughbred Thoughts is back and excited for the always frantic fall season of horse racing. Here goes!

The Breeder's Cup is slightly less than two months away and there are still many questions to be answered in terms of divisional honors. As I see it, there are only three seasonal awards that are already "locked up" regardless of what happens for the rest of the year, and two of them will most likely go to the same horse. Gio Ponti should win the award for Older Turf Male based on his four straight Grade 1 triumphs. This is a division without another clear standout this year, and regardless of his performance in the Breeder's Cup, he should have the award cinched up. Rachel Alexandra should garner exactly 100% of the votes for Champion 3-year old Filly. Anyone who votes for anyone else should have their voting privileges revoked. Her year has been perfect, and in addition to defeating 3-year old fillies on numerous occasions, she also defeated 3-year old males in the Preakness and Haskell and then dispatched of battle-tested older males in the Woodward Stakes. She is also pretty much a lock for Horse of the Year honors. The only possible scenario that could see her lose HOTY is if she somehow faces Zenyatta before the Breeder's Cup and loses. Furthermore, Zenyatta would then have to go on and win the Breeder's Cup Classic. Being that I don't see this scenario playing out, I think Rachel will probably win HOTY despite the fact that she probably won't even race again until next year.

Ah yes, the Breeder's Cup this year will be missing the best horse in America, if not the world. This is no one's fault except for the Breeder's Cup organization for holding the Championships on a synthetic surface for a second year in a row. Last year, Jess Jackson, owner of Curlin, reluctantly ran Curlin in the Classic over a synthetic surface where he was then trounced by two European turf horses AND Tiago, a horse who he had finished ahead of in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. Mr. Jackson does not want the same thing to happen two years in a row, so he is withholding Rachel from the Breeder's Cup. On a positive note, he has suggested several times that she will return to the races in 2010 in lieu of beginning her career as a broodmare. The Breeder's Cup is scheduled to be run at Churchill Downs next year, a surface on which Rachel won the Kentucky Oaks by a very comfortable twenty lengths. Jess Jackson's ultimate goal for her racing career is surely to cap off her campaign with a win in the 2010 Classic and then send her off to the breeding shed.

Some early Breeder's Cup predictions:

Juvenile Races: Lookin at Lucky and Mi Sueno seem to have the edge right now due to their experience on the California synthetics. No one knows how the horses based in New York will run over the synthetics and this entire division can fluctuate rapidly due to the precociousness of the youngsters, so guessing at this point is pretty fruitless.

Mile: Goldikova seems likely to return and once again destroy the Americans in her defense of last year's win. Unless Gio Ponti chooses this race over the Turf, I don't think any horse currently on this continent stands a chance.

Filly & Mare Sprint: I see this coming down to a two horse race between Informed Decision and Carlsbad. The defending champ, Ventura, has been off for a while, so she may end up lurking in the shadows and then pouncing out of nowhere.

Sprint: Zensational has looked absolutely unbeatable in his last three races. He has won three Grade 1's on synthetics in a row and has the perfect "just try and catch me" running style for the race. It is going to take a huge effort on someone's part or an off day on his part for him to be defeated.

Filly & Mare Turf: Forever Together seems to be in fine shape to defend her title. Who knows what the Europeans will throw at her, but last year this was a race dominated by Americans and it seems that once again, she will be the horse to beat.

Turf: Last year's champ from overseas, Conduit, is likely to return to defend his title, and, as always, there will probably be a fair share of Europeans shipped over for a shot at the $3 million purse. I feel that the best hope for an American victory in this race is not the aforementioned Gio Ponti, but the exciting, runaway speed freak Presious Passion. He has shown an affinity for hard, dried out turf courses, so the rain-less SoCal weather should suit him just fine. His running style of gunning it straight out of the gate and never looking back also throws other horses off their game since he ends up with such a tremendous lead early in the race.

Ladies Classic: If Zenyatta enters here as opposed to against the boys, then this race is hers to lose. If she goes in the Men's Classic, then this race is just about anyone's to win. Your best bet will probably be to look and see who has finished second behind her during her undefeated career, and hope that they can repeat that effort in a Zenyatta-less field.

Classic: Last year, Europeans ran one-two in the classic with America's best horse at the time, Curlin, finishing fourth. This year, our friends from across the pond may bring the brilliant Sea the Stars over for a run at the Classic. Europeans are calling him the best horse to come around in years and if he shows up in the starting gate for the Classic, he will surely be the one to beat. In terms of our best chances, they will probably come in the form of Einstein, Rail trip and maybe even a triumphant return to glory of Tiago. However, if Sea the Stars decides to run and puts forth an effort on the same level he's been running overseas, he will not lose.

I have talked at length before about Rachel Alexandra and how good she is. However, this was before she defeated 3-year old males (again) in the Haskell and then older males in the Woodward. I have only been following horse racing since late 2006 and I can assure you that she is by far the most dominating horse I have had the honor of watching race. My apologies to Curlin, Commentator, Invasor, Bernardini and Zenyatta, but she has no equals right now and the prospect of her returning next year should have everyone else thinking about nothing but second place. Her combination of speed and stamina makes her nearly perfect, and to think that she may actually improve as she grows older and more mature is just downright scary.

Disappointment in Virginia

Well, I had planned to go on at length this week about the Virginia Derby to be run on Saturday at Colonial Downs. However, Nicanor, the 3-year old full-brother to the ill-fated Barbaro apparently suffered an undisclosed leg injury sometime this week and will no longer compete in the race. Favoritism will now most likely fall upon Battle of Hastings, the winner of the Colonial Turf Cup earlier in the Colonial Downs meet. Nicanor was actually the morning-line favorite for this race and I certainly hope that his injury is a minor one that will allow him to heal quickly and return to the races in top form. He has shown flashes of brilliance in his last two races and horse racing as a whole could certainly use a healthy and talented Nicanor in the spotlight.

My whopping two-week streak of picking winners came to a screeching halt last weekend with the second place finish of Benny the Bull at 1-2 in the Smile Sprint Handicap at Calder Race Course in Florida. This week I am going to go with Unbridled Belle in the Grade 2, $1,000,000 Delaware Handicap. She won the Obeah Stakes here on June 20 by 11 lengths and appears to be in top form coming into this race. On paper, her only serious challenger appears to be Acoma, who has won five of her last six starts while competing on both dirt and turf. Personally, I think Acoma is a better runner on the turf than on the dirt, but with a purse of one-million dollars, the Del Cap is a hard race to pass up. She definitely looms as a threat to the favorite, but Unbridled Belle seems to absolutely love the surface at Delaware Park, as she is five for seven lifetime over the strip. 

Horse racing has had serious problems over the last year or two getting it's big races televised on a national level. The Triple Crown and it's prep-races receive coverage on ESPN, and the Breeder's Cup and a select few of it's preps also make their way onto ESPN. However, almost every weekend, there is top-class racing somewhere in the country that those outside of a simulcast facility have very little chance of seeing. Horse-racing-only stations like TVG and HRTV are excellent for those who prefer to bet from home, but for a more mainstream audience, they provide very little exposure. I wonder if a station like Versus (Vs.) would be willing to give a thirty minute or one hour slot on Saturdays to showcase the top races of the day. The viewership level on Vs. is almost certainly higher than HRTV or TVG, and horse racing would seem to fit into the category of the type of sport that they would be interested in broadcasting. Just a thought. Anyhoo, get well soon Nicanor and let's go Unbridled Belle!

"Lock of the Week" and Weekend Preview

Belmont Park will feature the $500,000, Grade 1 Man o' War Stakes on Saturday, and the favorite in the 1 and 3/8 miles turf contest will most likely be Gio Ponti, who is coming off a score in the Manhattan Handicap on the Belmont Stakes undercard. He will line up in the gate against a very strong field which features a slew of graded stakes winners. Grand Couturier, Quijano, Marsh Side, Midships and Dancing Forever all have an excellent chance of crossing the wire first in what should be an excellent betting affair. Grand Couturier and Dancing Forever were both major players in the turf division last year, and their efforts here could determine the path either takes for the rest of the year. The former likes a softer turf whereas the latter prefers to have a firmer going. Obviously, they both will not get ground to their liking, but however the course turns up on Saturday could have serious influence on the finish. My choice to win is the European shipper Quijano. He is 14 for 27 lifetime and may have an edge since he has been competing against the top horses from across the Atlantic. 

Hollywood Park will feature it's flagship race, the $700,000 Hollywood Gold Cup, on Saturday. The 1 and 1/4 miles Cushion Track affair features a very intriguing field of thirteen, of whom creating the most fervor is the 4-year old filly, Life is Sweet. She is coming off a second place finish to super-lady Zenyatta and was pointed towards this race so she could avoid the undefeated mare. Parading is the morning-line favorite at 4-1 as a result if his victory in the Dixie Stakes, with Life is Sweet coming in next odds-wise at 9-2. Rail Trip, Mast Track, Dakota Phone and Song of Navorone all have a more-than-realistic chance of winning here, and even Big Booster, Bullsbay  or Magnum wouldn't be a surprise. My selection is Rail trip. He has flashed brilliance during his short career, and I feel he is a horse who is vastly improving from race to race. He will either set the pace or set himself up in a stalking position and hopefully get first jump on his competition. 

It's not often that the spotlight falls onto Florida's Calder Race Course, but this weekend's "Summit of Speed" program summons the nation's top sprinters to the Sunshine State to compete for large purses at short distances. The defection of 2008 Eclipse Female Sprinter Award winner Indian Blessing took some of the allure away from the $350,000, Grade 1 Princess Rooney Handicap, but the six-furlong stakes still features a solid field. Favoritism will most likely fall upon Game Face, even though she is entering off of back-to-back off the board finishes. Dubai Majesty and Keep the Peace are coming off of a first and second respectively in the Winning Colors Stakes at Churchill Downs and they will likely be the biggest threats to the lukewarm favorite. My pick to win is Game Face. She has been off form recently, however she seems to love racing in Florida since she has won three graded stakes at Gulfstream Park in the past. Hopefully it was her love of the weather and not that specific track that triggered those victories, but I have a feeling the very capable hands of Edgar Prado will be able to guide her home.

Benny the Bull will make a second appearance on his comeback tour in the $350,000, Grade 2 Smile Sprint Handicap. Benny is the defending champion in the six furlong event, and he is also the 2008 Eclipse Award winner for Champion Sprinter. He was last seen finishing an outstanding second to Fabulous Strike in the True North Handicap on Belmont day. It appears as if the nearly one year "vacation" that Benny took did not take him off of his game, and he definitely looms the one to beat. Only five others will be lining up against Benny, with Ikigai, Yesbyjimminy and How's Your Halo the only ones that would seem to pose any threat. Benny has shown in the past an ability to close from well back or be closer to the pace, so the small field should only give him less obstacles on his path to victory. In case you haven't sensed it yet, Benny the Bull is my pick for the "Lock of the Week" which will try and extend it's perfect streak to three. Look out Zenyatta, you're not the only undefeated game in town.

Presious Performance in Jersey

Before I dump accolades upon myself for my correct selection for the second week in a row, I must comment on the performance of Presious Passion in the United Nations Handicap this past weekend. Not only did he set a new course mark with his victory, he destroyed the old record which was set by 2007 Breeder's Cup Turf winner, English Channel. English Channel ran the 1 and 3/8 miles of the 2007 United Nations in a strong 2:12.89. On Saturday, Presious Passion completed the same distance in an outstanding 2:10.97, which is the equivalent of just less than ten lengths better than English Channel's time. The time was only .77 seconds off of the world record, which was set at Belmont Park. What makes his time even more impressive is the fact that a 1 and 3/8 mile race at Monmouth is run around three turns, whereas a 1 and 3/8 mile trek around Belmont is only a two turn affair due to the longer distance of the Belmont oval. Presious Passion's "come and get me" tactic worked perfectly as he opened up a lead of twenty lengths at one point. With his victory, Presious Passion earned his spot on the Breeder's Cup Turf, and he will be a dangerous entrant if he can duplicate his form from this weekend come November.

The weekend's two top sprint races both were oddly taken by 3-year olds with Munnings victorious in the Tom Fool Handicap and Zensational in the Triple Bend Handicap. It is rare at this time of year for 3-year olds to be racing in top stakes against their older colleagues, but each young colt was able to win and win rather convincingly. Munnings was definitely aided by the scratch of Fabulous Strike, but turned in a visually impressive performance nevertheless. Zensational led his foes through testing fractions of 22.20, 45 and 1:08.80, yet was still able to complete the seven furlongs in 1:21.34. I assume Munnings will be pointed towards the King's Bishop Stakes at Saratoga, and he will almost certainly go off favored. Zensational is a fast-improving colt who could be a major player in the Breeder's Cup Sprint if he stays healthy.

Gozzip Girl traveled all the way from New York to take part in the American Oaks at Hollywood Park in California. She made the trip worthwhile for her owners by capturing first place by 3 and 1/4 lengths in the $700,000 race and placing herself firmly atop the list of the best 3-year old turf fillies in the nation. In addition to defeating ten foes from the States, she also beat two shippers from Europe and another who traveled all the way from New Zealand. Whether or not she sticks to the grass remains to be seen, as there are a wealth of options for her if she can duplicate her form on the dirt or even synthetic.

Two for two, my friends. Informed Decision, my second weekly "Lock", paid a whopping $2.40 for her gate-to-wire victory in the Chicago Handicap. She is going to be a force to be reckoned with in the Breeder's Cup Filly and Mare Sprint if she continues on this path. She has shown the ability to sit off of a fast pace or herself set a reasonable pace, and has won her last three races over two different synthetic surfaces and a muddy dirt track. Can you say "versatile"? After two weeks, my hypothetical profit is up to $.50 and my winning % is still at a rock-solid 100. 

Lock of the Week

There is a veritable plethora of stakes races occurring over the next three days, many of which could have a significant impact on top-class horses who are planning to compete for divisional championships towards the end of the year. 

Presious Passion (yes, that is spelled correctly) faces off against Court Vision, Better Talk Now, Brass Hat and five others in the Grade 1, $750,00 United Nations Handicap to be raced over 1 and 3/8 miles of Monmouth Park's turf course. Presious Passion is coming off a win in the Monmouth Stakes and, in my opinion, looms the one to beat with his brilliant combination of speed and stamina. He is a very stubborn horse to pass in the stretch, and that is only if you are able to catch up to him after he posts very strong fractions for a race of this distance. 

Arguably the nation's top male sprinter, Fabulous Strike will try and follow up his extraordinary win in the True North Handicap on the Belmont Stakes undercard with a victory in the Grade 2, $150,000 Tom Fool Handicap to be run at 7 furlongs on the Belmont Park dirt. Fabulous Strike's performance in the True North was the most impressive sprint performance of the year so far, which featured him running 6 furlongs in an outstanding 1:07.85. Add to that the fact that finishing second that day was last year's Eclipse award winner for top Male Sprinter, Benny the Bull, and the win was all the more amazing. His top competition will probably be in the form of Munnings, a 3-year old who also posted a victory on the Belmont undercard, his coming in the Woody Stephens Stakes. Fabulous Strike is definitely a better horse at the 6 furlong distance, as he tends to be a bit tired out for the final furlong when he stretches out to 7. However, his dangerous speed out of the gate and ability to run other speed horses into the ground make him the horse to beat, despite the presence of Munnings.

Asiatic Boy and It's a Bird will line up in the gate against eight others in the Grade 2, $400,000 Suburban Handicap, to be run at 1 and 1/4 miles on the Belmont Park dirt. Asiatic Boy finished just one length off of the lead last time out in the Stephen Foster Handicap despite encountering trouble through the stretch while trying to squeeze through the same opening as another horse. It's a Bird is coming off of a win the Lone Star Park Handicap and is currently on a two race win streak, both being graded stakes. These two will vie for favoritism in what should be an excellent race.

Informed Decision drops down to the Grade 3, $150,000 Arlington Handicap despite reeling off two consecutive victories in Grade 1 stakes. She simply towers over her five rivals on paper, and is undefeated at the races seven furlong distance. She has won on dirt at Churchill Downs and on the polytrack at Keeneland in her last two contests, so the artificial surface at Arlington should not prove to be an issue. These factors combine to make Informed Decision the choice for my "Lock of the Week".

Keep an eye out as well for stakes action across the country this weekend. Hollywood Park features the American Oaks, American Handicap and Triple Bend Handicap. Monmouth Park's Salvatore Mile precedes the aforementioned United Nations Handicap, and there will also be other graded stakes action present at Belmont and Churchill. Let's all root for Informed Decision, who will hopefully not go off at 1-20, a la my previous "Lock". My guess is somewhere in the range of 1-5 to 3-5. Bet the house again, ladies and gentlemen. She is a Lock.

The Reason I Am a Fan of Horse Racing

I did not become an avid follower of horse racing until the beginning of 2007. The only exposure I had to the sport was the Kentucky Derby, and even then I usually did not know it was "Derby Day" until I turned on the television and happened to stumble across the all-day programming. "Prep-races" was a foreign term to me, and I had no idea that the horses even competed in other races prior to and after the Triple Crown series. Preakness day would come and go unbeknownst to myself, and I would tune in for the Belmont Stakes only if there was a Triple Crown on the line.

The first step to my becoming a fan was the construction of the Harrah's Casino, Simulcast and Harness track in lovely (.....) Chester, Pennsylvania. During my initial trip, I had absolutely no idea what I was doing. I was betting harness tracks across the country with not a clue as to what the difference between "trot" and "pace" were. After taking one look at a thoroughbred program, I immediately dismissed it because there were far too many numbers that I didn't understand. At least with the harness past performances, all the horses had always run one mile. Whoever had run the fastest miles in the past would win the race today. Right? For anyone who has ever bet harness, the answer is obviously an overwhelming "NO". However, I thoroughly enjoyed the individual betting screens and the overall atmosphere of the place (for those that have never been there, the computers at each seat are eerily similiar to the computers used to order sandwiches at "Wawa". Just touch the screen where it says what you want to do, and bam, you got it.) I purchased a book that explained the nuances of the thoroughbred program and returned to the simulcast facility fully armed with the knowledge needed to make intelligent betting decisions. On approximately my third race, I decided to throw $1 on a 9-8-2-10 superfecta at Calder Race Course. Miraculously, it finished up exactly that way. $700 and change were mine-all-mine. Was I some sort of superfecta expert? Was I just a naturally brilliant handicapper? I won't go into the financially detrimental details, but once again, the answer is another overwhelming "NO". However, I was hooked into the Sport of Kings, but in a much different way than I am today. I was obsessed with the big score and trying to make a small fortune off of the races. At this same time, a handsome, young colt had just kicked off his 3-year old season, and my view of racing would never be the same.

The date was February 19, 2007. I had read an article in the Philadelphia Inquirer about a promising, Pennsylvania bred 3-year old who was taking his next step toward the Kentucky Derby via the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas. He was undefeated and had been on or within a head of the lead throughout the entire running of all four of his career races. His name was Hard Spun, and he was the 1 to 2 betting favorite at post time. The gates flew open and Hard Spun had perhaps the worst start of his entire career. He only broke a few steps slower than the other speed horses in the field, but for Hard Spun, that made a world of difference. Since he broke slower than usual, he had several horses between him and the rail and therefore had to race much wider than the rest of the field. He made a move up into second place toward the end of the backstretch, but failed to sustain his run and ended up crossing the finish line a very disappointing fourth. For the first time since my debut trip to the track, I felt sorry for a horse who had come out of a race perfectly healthy. In my mind, he was clearly the best horse on paper and I could find no statistical reason for him to have run the way he did. Even if he had been wider, this should only have forced him to win by a smaller margin than usual, right? The only reason I could think of at the time was that the poor guy was simply having a bad day. He was clearly trying to give it his all throughout the race, but for whatever reason on February 19, 2007, he couldn't put together a winning effort. 

I started scouring the internet for all the information I could pertaining to his career and where his next race may be. Would he be able to bounce back and put together another winning streak or had he simply peaked as a 2-year old? Would his "no-name" trainer continue to point him toward the Triple Crown or would he be entered in easier spots? I became absolutely enamored with the little guy. I was now more of a fan of the horses as opposed to the betting. I followed the Triple Crown trail like I would a professional sports team. Despite my obvious bias, I truly thought that Mr. Spun had an excellent chance of taking home the roses in the 2007 Kentucky Derby. When they made the turn for home and he was loping along on the lead while all the other horses that had been near him were fading toward the back, I experienced a rush of absolute euphoria. Of course, I had yet to notice Street Sense blazing along the rail and gaining quickly, so the euphoria was short-lived. For a split second, I thought Hard Spun would be able to tough it out against Street Sense down the stretch, but alas, it was not meant to be. When the race ended, I was obviously a bit upset at the final result, but shortly thereafter, my feelings changed. I was genuinely proud of him. He ran his heart out for the entire 1 and 1/4 miles and had finished ahead of eighteen other horses. He finished second in the most famous race in the world and had done all the dirty work being on the lead for all but the last eighth of a mile. I had gone from excitement to euphoria to disappointment to pride in just over two minutes, and because of this emotional equivalent to a NYC cab ride, I am a Hard Spun fan for life. 

The rest of his career certainly did not let me down. He placed third in the Preakness and fourth in the Belmont. He returned to the races after a short, post-triple-crown break to finish second in the Haskell. He then polished off two wins in a row with victories in the King's Bishop Stakes and the Kentucky Cup Classic. In the latter, he exacted his revenge on Derby winner Street Sense (albeit on a slightly smaller stage) by taking the race gate-to-wire with Street Sense crossing the line second. In the Breeder's Cup Classic, he finished off his career with another valiant second place effort to the future, two time Horse of the Year, Curlin. He finished in the top three in all his races save for two, and he never once threw in a "dud". He never fell far behind and was always in contention turning for home. He would come out of the gate running and give it his all, all the way to the wire, every time.

From what I've read, Hard Spun is thoroughly enjoying his career at stud (who wouldn't?), and I will be one of the biggest fan's of his sons and daughters when they take to the track in a few short years. 

Rachel Wow-lexandra

I currently possess the enviable status of being the world's only perfect handicapper. During the short history of this blog, I have made exactly one pick, and it turned out to be correct. Over 19 lengths correct and in stakes record time to be exact. Was she by far the best horse on paper? Yes. Was she only facing two others? Yes. Did she only pay ten cents on a two-dollar win bet? Yes. However, Rachel Alexandra still managed to put on a show of very impressive proportions. Normal horses do not set records when they are not even asked by their jockeys for any extra effort through most of the stretch. Her jockey, Calvin Borel, summed it up best after the race by saying: "She set a track record, believe me, she's not normal. I'm telling you, she's unbelievable." He has said in the past that she is the best horse he has ever ridden. I cannot think of a reason to disagree with him. 

Meanwhile, the other superlady of the horse racing world, Zenyatta, turned in yet another last-to-first performance to increase her record to a perfect 11 for 11 lifetime. After the race, her owner gave some hints toward a possible matchup between Zenyatta and Rachel sometime before the Breeder's Cup. This is very exciting news, since most everyone thought this had a zero-percent chance of happening following last week's announcement that Rachel would be bypassing the 2009 Breeder's Cup altogether. The SuperFilly vs. The SuperMare would be an excellent showcase for the sport and hopefully draw much-needed media attention on a national level.

If Zenyatta does indeed head East for a showdown with Rachel, one has to wonder who in the world would enter their horse into a race that featured those two. With so many options for stakes races in the late summer and fall, why would anyone enter a race where finishing third would be the expected outcome, regardless of how talented you think your horse may be? Perhaps somewhere such as Saratoga or Monmouth can put together some sort of massive purse which would make third or fourth place prize money enough to warrant running at all if you aren't one of the aforementioned ladies. The sport could use some national attention during the non-triple-crown time of year, so I sincerely hope that the owners figure out a way to get these two on the same track.

I will be keeping track of my "Lock of the Week" standings on the left-hand side of this page. Listed will be my success rate and profit off of $2 win wagers.

Weekend Preview and The Premiere of the "Lock of the Week"

When it comes to horse racing, I am a huge fan of the so-called "superstars". Unfortunately, there are very few of them right now, and even fewer if you only count the ones the general public has ever heard of. This weekend features one from column "A" and one from column "B": Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra. 

If you were to ask the average sports fan who "Zenyatta" is, I'm guessing most couldn't even tell you that she is a horse, let alone what she has accomplished. Zenyatta's career has been a perfect 10 for 10 with the last 8 wins coming in graded stakes. Her races are thrilling to watch as she falls far behind her overmatched opponents in the early stages, and then casually glides past the entire field in the stretch for an easy victory. The closest anyone has ever been to her at the finish line is a half of a length, and that actually occurred in last year's edition of the race she is competing in on Saturday. She has drawn post position number 8 for the Grade 1, $300,000 Vanity Handicap to be run at 1 and 1/8 miles on the main track at Hollywood Park in California. Zenyatta towers over this field that includes only two other stakes winners, Dawn after Dawn and Briecat, neither of which have been running well lately. As long as Zenyatta shows up and runs her normal race, she will almost certainly be victorious.

Rachel Alexandra is certainly more well known to the general public, thanks to her beating up on the boys in the Preakness Stakes just six short weeks ago. Unfortunately, she did not make the trip to New York for the Belmont Stakes, but alas she will race in the Empire State this weekend in the Grade 1, $300,000 Mother Goose Stakes. Rachel will be lining up in the starting gate with only four other 3-year old fillies, two of which are graded stakes winners. Flashing and Don't Forget Gil are the stakes winning challengers to Rachel, while Malibu Prayer and Hopeful Image round out the field. All but Don't Forget Gil enter this race off of a victory in the their last race, with Flashing coming off a win in the Grade 3, Nassau County Stakes. Much like Zenyatta, it would be a complete shock if Rachel Alexandra fails to cross the finish line first. Regardless of how impressive her competition may look, Rachel is simply in a class of her own. She has shown an ability to rate or win gate-to-wire, and she has the combination of speed and stamina to run other "on the lead" types into the ground. 

While I did not plan ahead of time to debut my "Lock of the Week" the day before both Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta are racing, I must say that I don't think I could've picked an easier weekend to make my first selection. However, I did have to delineate for quite some time over which of these super-ladies is more of a "lock". I settled on Rachel Alexandra, the lone reason being her running style. She comes out of the gate running, and then keeps running, and then she runs some more. Zenyatta, on the other hand, comes out of the gate as if she is going for a light jog in the park. She usually gets down to racing business sometime in the final turn, but she still has to pass every horse in the field over a relatively short distance. With her closing style, there are more variables that can be detrimental to victory. She will most likely have to cover more ground than her opponents while passing them on the outside, and is at the mercy of the horses potentially zigging and zagging in front of her and causing traffic problems. 

So there you have it. My first "Lock of the Week". Rachel Alexandra. Bet the house on it, and you will most likely get back your house, and one-tenth of another house. Call me a wuss for not going with a more gutsy pick, but I am trying to get a winning streak started here. 

Rachel Alexandra

It was announced today by Rachel Alexandra's owner, Jess Jackson (of Kendall-Jackson wine and Curlin fame), that she will definitely NOT run in the 2009 Breeder's Cup. He cited Santa Anita Park's synthetic surface (or, as he called it, "plastic") as the reason she will not be making the trip out to California in early November. Curlin's struggles over the same surface last year were also referenced as further reasoning behind his decision. However, he hinted at his desire to race her against the boys again before years end AND he mentioned the possibility that she would return to race next year as a 4-year old. 

Mr. Jackson would not commit to any specific race besides this Saturday's Mother Goose Stakes for his super-filly, but he did mention several possibilities: the July 19 Delaware Handicap, the July 25 Coaching Club American Oaks, the August 2 Haskell Invitational, the August 22 Alabama Stakes, and the August 29 Shadwell Travers Stakes. 

Personally, I hope she goes in both the Haskell and the Travers and then continues against males for the rest of the year. If she handily dispatches her 4 opponents this Saturday, then she will have nothing left to prove against her fellow 3-year old fillies. She would, however, need to race against the boys at least once or twice over the remainder of the year to give her a better chance for multiple Eclipse Awards. She probably already has the award for top 3-year old female locked up, but she most certainly has a fighting chance at both top 3-year old (of either gender) and Horse of the Year. You can be assured that Mr. Jackson has dreams of campaigning two consecutive back-to-back horses of the year, and will try and put her in the position to do so.

The possibility of her returning to the track as a 4-year old also opens up a myriad of scenarios, especially if she has a successful conclusion to 2009. Remember, the 2010 Breeder's Cup is going to be held at the dirt-friendly confines of Churchill Downs, so the chance of her closing out her career with a Breeder's Cup performance still exists. Obviously, this is all massively speculative and I know I am looking way too far into the future, but I like dreaming up best-case-scenarios so I may brag when any part of my prediction comes true.

Race Calls

As my youtube list of favorites shows, I am a huge fan of watching replays of any races that are available for viewing. Calling races is probably much more difficult than the average watcher fathoms it to be, and for this reason I have the utmost respect for all of the announcers that make a living day to day accurately calling out race after race. I have trouble tracking a single runner in a six horse field sometimes, yet they call out the position of every horse, the amount of lengths ahead or behind, and the fractional times, all without missing a beat (most of the time...).

Here are some of the best race calls that I could find the video for:

Lava Man's 2007 Hollywood Gold Cup. Vic Stauffer was genuinely excited about the outcome of this race and he audibly runs out of breath after the finish.  

http://www.ntra.com/video.aspx?id=26226

Makybe Diva's remarkable 3rd straight victory Down Under in the Melbourne Cup. I wish American race recordings had the amount of crowd noise that is present in this audio, as I feel it properly conveyed how excited the crowd was about the enormity of what was being accomplished.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Em-PsEhVlLU

Big Brown was truly "great on the green" in the 2008 Monmouth Stakes. I had the pleasure of viewing this race in person, but the call is almost as good as seeing it live.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMBmWvgXH0U

Afleet Alex nearly fell at the top of the stretch, and Pimlico announcer Dave Rodman sounds like he nearly fell out of his chair making the call of the stretch run. He then ends it with a very monster-truck-show-esque "AWESOME!". 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=op78_8CYZ0Y

Cigar's 1995 Breeder's Cup Classic victory topped off one of the greatest single-year performances in racing history, and it is a fitting call to the end of Cigar's perfect season.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydT4SRxZT1Y

Tiznow's back to back Breeder's Cup Classic victories in 2000 and 2001 are unique for

several reasons. Firstly, no one else has ever reeled off two Classic victories, let alone in 

consecutive years. Secondly, in both races, the second place horses had done all or most of 

their racing overseas. The 2001 call is also very special since it occurred in Belmont Park on

Long Island, just months after the 9/11 attacks. Hence the patriotic finish.

2000 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdIKDulp-YE

2001 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdYsb0tUD5s

Secretariat's 1973 Belmont not only capped off his historic Triple Crown, it also capped off the greatest race and arguably the greatest race call of all time. Enjoy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=un-nt9O_MNg

Did We Learn Anything on Saturday?

Saturday's stakes action was rather subdued thanks to the the Grade 2 New York Stakes being rained off of the turf and the lack of any overly impressive winners elsewhere in the country. Battle of Hastings wasn't a surprise in the Grade 2 Colonial Turf Cup, but his final time and appearance down the stretch as he was battling to the wire definitely did not cement him as a mortal lock for his next race. The New York Stakes was won by Icon Project, and while she did absolutely destroy the field by 13 1/4 lengths, the field she destroyed was meant for 1 and 1/4 miles on the turf, not 1 and 1/8 miles on the main track. Perhaps the best performance was Unbridled Belle in the Grade 3 Obeah Stakes at Delaware Park where she romped by 11 lengths in the slop while leading the entire way. Another front-running victory occurred in the Grade 3 Affirmed Handicap where Grazen led every step of the way en route to victory.

Did any of these results cause any waves in their respective divisions? I doubt it. I assume Battle of Hastings will go next in the Virginia Derby, where he will hopefully face a strong field that includes Nicanor. Who knows where Icon Project will be pointed since she beat a field which was meant for the grass, not the mud. Unbridled Belle is definitely heading toward the July 19 Delaware Handicap, a race she won in 2007 (she also won the 2008 Obeah Stakes and finished 3rd in the 2008 DelCap ). I have no idea where Grazen will be headed next, although I assume he will stay in California to race on the synthetics, especially the Hollywood Park synthetic, where he is undefeated.

I took a trip to the turf club yesterday, and I reached a conclusion about my betting skills when it comes to horse-racing: they are subpar. However, I've never met anyone who has consistent success at the windows, so I am definitely in the majority. I've met plenty of people who claim to be successful on a regular basis, but they are usually an odd sort who are almost certainly lying. However, I am going to attempt from now on to give out exactly one winner every weekend. "Geoff's Lock Of The Week" will be posted every Friday. I will keep track of my record and the ROI on a straight $2 win bet on every pick, regardless of how poorly I am doing. Should be interesting!

Nicanor

Yesterday, I mentioned that the general public loses all interest in horse racing after the Triple Crown. Well, a promising 3 year colt old won his second race in a row yesterday, and he happens to be a horse who has the power to garner much public attention. His father is a stallion by the name of Dynaformer, and his mother is a mare named La Ville Rouge. His name is Nicanor, and his bloodlines are significant since they make him a full brother to a horse that everyone has heard of - Barbaro.  

Just the fact that Nicanor is turning into a decent little horse is reason enough to be excited. He has won both of his starts since he was given a chance on the turf, and he has won both of them in fairly impressive fashion. Yesterday was an allowance test against horses of all ages in which he stopped the timer in 1:52 4/5 for his mile and one-eighth journey.  Michael Matz, his trainer, announced that if all is well with Nicanor following this race, his next race will most likely be the Virginia Derby on July 18. This would be Nicanor's first stakes action and you can bet there will be added interest in the race simply due to his presence. Colonial Downs is probably salivating at the thought of him entering their starting gate.  

If Nicanor continues to win, one can only imagine the following he would garner. There is already a blog set up on BloodHorse.com that follows his every action, but if he is able to become a stakes caliber horse, he will start to get national attention. Barbaro captured the nation's heart both before and after his injury in the Preakness, and to have his little brother come along and try to pick up the torch where big brother left it off is a story that is just too perfect for the mainstream media to ignore. I know that the odds of him continuing with his winning streak as the races get tougher are much lower than what people think, but the possibility of him running up the win column for the rest of the year is something which I am very excited about. I will certainly be rooting for the little guy, and I hope you will be too.

Post Triple Crown Woes

Well, the Triple Crown races are behind us. The general public will now ignore horse racing until next spring. However, they will be missing out on what is actually the best racing of the year. The quest for the Crown is over. The quest for the Breeder's Cup begins. 

Will Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra ever meet in a race? Will Mine That Bird and Rachel Alexandra ever have a rematch of their Preakness showdown? The best chance of the latter happening is probably in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga. Mine That Bird's connections have already laid out his plan for the second half of the year. He is to race in the West Virginia Derby and then the Travers. Rachel will be going next in the Mother Goose at Belmont on June 27. Somehow, I don't imagine Rachel Alexandra's owner, wine mogul Jess Jackson, shipping her off to Charlestown. However, it would not surprise me in the least if she was then pointed to another showdown with the boys in the Travers. If that turns out to be the case, then the Travers is shaping up to be one heck of a race with the winners of the other 2 triple crown races already pointing towards it as their collective summer goal. 

As for Zenyatta ever meeting Rachel, this is probably not as likely as you may think. Zenyatta's days on dirt are probably over. The Breeder's Cup is in California again this year, so there really is no reason for her to be shipped west to run on non-synthetics, as there are plenty of Southern California races for her to compete in leading up to the Breeder's Cup. Add to that the fact that she has already shown how well she can compete on the synthetic SoCal circuit (i.e her entire career except for one race in Arkansas). As for Rachel Alexandra, no one knows how she would fare on a synthetic surface. She is a queen amongst princesses (and princes!) on dirt, but many a horse has been unsuccessful in transferring their dirt dominance over to synthetic. Curlin is the perfect example. You can be sure that Jess Jackson will want to find out if she can run on synthetic, since he of all people will most certainly be in favor of a showdown of the top 2 females in training. But it will a very tricky decision for sure if there is any doubt, especially after what happened to Curlin last year. 

Those are only 2 of a myriad of questions that I hope get answered over the course of the second half of the year. Hopefully the older male division starts to clear up a bit, but right now your guess is as good as anyone's as to who will become the leader of that pack. 

Final thought - No one on the planet is more excited for the Secretariat movie than I. If there is anywhere in the country that has a midnight showing on opening day, I will be attending. However, I have until 2010 to finalize my plans. Hopefully this upcoming weekend will produce some memorable races. Until then, may your bets be profitable and your oat bags be plentiful.