Rachel Wow-lexandra

I currently possess the enviable status of being the world's only perfect handicapper. During the short history of this blog, I have made exactly one pick, and it turned out to be correct. Over 19 lengths correct and in stakes record time to be exact. Was she by far the best horse on paper? Yes. Was she only facing two others? Yes. Did she only pay ten cents on a two-dollar win bet? Yes. However, Rachel Alexandra still managed to put on a show of very impressive proportions. Normal horses do not set records when they are not even asked by their jockeys for any extra effort through most of the stretch. Her jockey, Calvin Borel, summed it up best after the race by saying: "She set a track record, believe me, she's not normal. I'm telling you, she's unbelievable." He has said in the past that she is the best horse he has ever ridden. I cannot think of a reason to disagree with him. 

Meanwhile, the other superlady of the horse racing world, Zenyatta, turned in yet another last-to-first performance to increase her record to a perfect 11 for 11 lifetime. After the race, her owner gave some hints toward a possible matchup between Zenyatta and Rachel sometime before the Breeder's Cup. This is very exciting news, since most everyone thought this had a zero-percent chance of happening following last week's announcement that Rachel would be bypassing the 2009 Breeder's Cup altogether. The SuperFilly vs. The SuperMare would be an excellent showcase for the sport and hopefully draw much-needed media attention on a national level.

If Zenyatta does indeed head East for a showdown with Rachel, one has to wonder who in the world would enter their horse into a race that featured those two. With so many options for stakes races in the late summer and fall, why would anyone enter a race where finishing third would be the expected outcome, regardless of how talented you think your horse may be? Perhaps somewhere such as Saratoga or Monmouth can put together some sort of massive purse which would make third or fourth place prize money enough to warrant running at all if you aren't one of the aforementioned ladies. The sport could use some national attention during the non-triple-crown time of year, so I sincerely hope that the owners figure out a way to get these two on the same track.

I will be keeping track of my "Lock of the Week" standings on the left-hand side of this page. Listed will be my success rate and profit off of $2 win wagers.

Weekend Preview and The Premiere of the "Lock of the Week"

When it comes to horse racing, I am a huge fan of the so-called "superstars". Unfortunately, there are very few of them right now, and even fewer if you only count the ones the general public has ever heard of. This weekend features one from column "A" and one from column "B": Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra. 

If you were to ask the average sports fan who "Zenyatta" is, I'm guessing most couldn't even tell you that she is a horse, let alone what she has accomplished. Zenyatta's career has been a perfect 10 for 10 with the last 8 wins coming in graded stakes. Her races are thrilling to watch as she falls far behind her overmatched opponents in the early stages, and then casually glides past the entire field in the stretch for an easy victory. The closest anyone has ever been to her at the finish line is a half of a length, and that actually occurred in last year's edition of the race she is competing in on Saturday. She has drawn post position number 8 for the Grade 1, $300,000 Vanity Handicap to be run at 1 and 1/8 miles on the main track at Hollywood Park in California. Zenyatta towers over this field that includes only two other stakes winners, Dawn after Dawn and Briecat, neither of which have been running well lately. As long as Zenyatta shows up and runs her normal race, she will almost certainly be victorious.

Rachel Alexandra is certainly more well known to the general public, thanks to her beating up on the boys in the Preakness Stakes just six short weeks ago. Unfortunately, she did not make the trip to New York for the Belmont Stakes, but alas she will race in the Empire State this weekend in the Grade 1, $300,000 Mother Goose Stakes. Rachel will be lining up in the starting gate with only four other 3-year old fillies, two of which are graded stakes winners. Flashing and Don't Forget Gil are the stakes winning challengers to Rachel, while Malibu Prayer and Hopeful Image round out the field. All but Don't Forget Gil enter this race off of a victory in the their last race, with Flashing coming off a win in the Grade 3, Nassau County Stakes. Much like Zenyatta, it would be a complete shock if Rachel Alexandra fails to cross the finish line first. Regardless of how impressive her competition may look, Rachel is simply in a class of her own. She has shown an ability to rate or win gate-to-wire, and she has the combination of speed and stamina to run other "on the lead" types into the ground. 

While I did not plan ahead of time to debut my "Lock of the Week" the day before both Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta are racing, I must say that I don't think I could've picked an easier weekend to make my first selection. However, I did have to delineate for quite some time over which of these super-ladies is more of a "lock". I settled on Rachel Alexandra, the lone reason being her running style. She comes out of the gate running, and then keeps running, and then she runs some more. Zenyatta, on the other hand, comes out of the gate as if she is going for a light jog in the park. She usually gets down to racing business sometime in the final turn, but she still has to pass every horse in the field over a relatively short distance. With her closing style, there are more variables that can be detrimental to victory. She will most likely have to cover more ground than her opponents while passing them on the outside, and is at the mercy of the horses potentially zigging and zagging in front of her and causing traffic problems. 

So there you have it. My first "Lock of the Week". Rachel Alexandra. Bet the house on it, and you will most likely get back your house, and one-tenth of another house. Call me a wuss for not going with a more gutsy pick, but I am trying to get a winning streak started here. 

Rachel Alexandra

It was announced today by Rachel Alexandra's owner, Jess Jackson (of Kendall-Jackson wine and Curlin fame), that she will definitely NOT run in the 2009 Breeder's Cup. He cited Santa Anita Park's synthetic surface (or, as he called it, "plastic") as the reason she will not be making the trip out to California in early November. Curlin's struggles over the same surface last year were also referenced as further reasoning behind his decision. However, he hinted at his desire to race her against the boys again before years end AND he mentioned the possibility that she would return to race next year as a 4-year old. 

Mr. Jackson would not commit to any specific race besides this Saturday's Mother Goose Stakes for his super-filly, but he did mention several possibilities: the July 19 Delaware Handicap, the July 25 Coaching Club American Oaks, the August 2 Haskell Invitational, the August 22 Alabama Stakes, and the August 29 Shadwell Travers Stakes. 

Personally, I hope she goes in both the Haskell and the Travers and then continues against males for the rest of the year. If she handily dispatches her 4 opponents this Saturday, then she will have nothing left to prove against her fellow 3-year old fillies. She would, however, need to race against the boys at least once or twice over the remainder of the year to give her a better chance for multiple Eclipse Awards. She probably already has the award for top 3-year old female locked up, but she most certainly has a fighting chance at both top 3-year old (of either gender) and Horse of the Year. You can be assured that Mr. Jackson has dreams of campaigning two consecutive back-to-back horses of the year, and will try and put her in the position to do so.

The possibility of her returning to the track as a 4-year old also opens up a myriad of scenarios, especially if she has a successful conclusion to 2009. Remember, the 2010 Breeder's Cup is going to be held at the dirt-friendly confines of Churchill Downs, so the chance of her closing out her career with a Breeder's Cup performance still exists. Obviously, this is all massively speculative and I know I am looking way too far into the future, but I like dreaming up best-case-scenarios so I may brag when any part of my prediction comes true.

Race Calls

As my youtube list of favorites shows, I am a huge fan of watching replays of any races that are available for viewing. Calling races is probably much more difficult than the average watcher fathoms it to be, and for this reason I have the utmost respect for all of the announcers that make a living day to day accurately calling out race after race. I have trouble tracking a single runner in a six horse field sometimes, yet they call out the position of every horse, the amount of lengths ahead or behind, and the fractional times, all without missing a beat (most of the time...).

Here are some of the best race calls that I could find the video for:

Lava Man's 2007 Hollywood Gold Cup. Vic Stauffer was genuinely excited about the outcome of this race and he audibly runs out of breath after the finish.  

http://www.ntra.com/video.aspx?id=26226

Makybe Diva's remarkable 3rd straight victory Down Under in the Melbourne Cup. I wish American race recordings had the amount of crowd noise that is present in this audio, as I feel it properly conveyed how excited the crowd was about the enormity of what was being accomplished.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Em-PsEhVlLU

Big Brown was truly "great on the green" in the 2008 Monmouth Stakes. I had the pleasure of viewing this race in person, but the call is almost as good as seeing it live.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMBmWvgXH0U

Afleet Alex nearly fell at the top of the stretch, and Pimlico announcer Dave Rodman sounds like he nearly fell out of his chair making the call of the stretch run. He then ends it with a very monster-truck-show-esque "AWESOME!". 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=op78_8CYZ0Y

Cigar's 1995 Breeder's Cup Classic victory topped off one of the greatest single-year performances in racing history, and it is a fitting call to the end of Cigar's perfect season.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydT4SRxZT1Y

Tiznow's back to back Breeder's Cup Classic victories in 2000 and 2001 are unique for

several reasons. Firstly, no one else has ever reeled off two Classic victories, let alone in 

consecutive years. Secondly, in both races, the second place horses had done all or most of 

their racing overseas. The 2001 call is also very special since it occurred in Belmont Park on

Long Island, just months after the 9/11 attacks. Hence the patriotic finish.

2000 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdIKDulp-YE

2001 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdYsb0tUD5s

Secretariat's 1973 Belmont not only capped off his historic Triple Crown, it also capped off the greatest race and arguably the greatest race call of all time. Enjoy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=un-nt9O_MNg

Did We Learn Anything on Saturday?

Saturday's stakes action was rather subdued thanks to the the Grade 2 New York Stakes being rained off of the turf and the lack of any overly impressive winners elsewhere in the country. Battle of Hastings wasn't a surprise in the Grade 2 Colonial Turf Cup, but his final time and appearance down the stretch as he was battling to the wire definitely did not cement him as a mortal lock for his next race. The New York Stakes was won by Icon Project, and while she did absolutely destroy the field by 13 1/4 lengths, the field she destroyed was meant for 1 and 1/4 miles on the turf, not 1 and 1/8 miles on the main track. Perhaps the best performance was Unbridled Belle in the Grade 3 Obeah Stakes at Delaware Park where she romped by 11 lengths in the slop while leading the entire way. Another front-running victory occurred in the Grade 3 Affirmed Handicap where Grazen led every step of the way en route to victory.

Did any of these results cause any waves in their respective divisions? I doubt it. I assume Battle of Hastings will go next in the Virginia Derby, where he will hopefully face a strong field that includes Nicanor. Who knows where Icon Project will be pointed since she beat a field which was meant for the grass, not the mud. Unbridled Belle is definitely heading toward the July 19 Delaware Handicap, a race she won in 2007 (she also won the 2008 Obeah Stakes and finished 3rd in the 2008 DelCap ). I have no idea where Grazen will be headed next, although I assume he will stay in California to race on the synthetics, especially the Hollywood Park synthetic, where he is undefeated.

I took a trip to the turf club yesterday, and I reached a conclusion about my betting skills when it comes to horse-racing: they are subpar. However, I've never met anyone who has consistent success at the windows, so I am definitely in the majority. I've met plenty of people who claim to be successful on a regular basis, but they are usually an odd sort who are almost certainly lying. However, I am going to attempt from now on to give out exactly one winner every weekend. "Geoff's Lock Of The Week" will be posted every Friday. I will keep track of my record and the ROI on a straight $2 win bet on every pick, regardless of how poorly I am doing. Should be interesting!

Nicanor

Yesterday, I mentioned that the general public loses all interest in horse racing after the Triple Crown. Well, a promising 3 year colt old won his second race in a row yesterday, and he happens to be a horse who has the power to garner much public attention. His father is a stallion by the name of Dynaformer, and his mother is a mare named La Ville Rouge. His name is Nicanor, and his bloodlines are significant since they make him a full brother to a horse that everyone has heard of - Barbaro.  

Just the fact that Nicanor is turning into a decent little horse is reason enough to be excited. He has won both of his starts since he was given a chance on the turf, and he has won both of them in fairly impressive fashion. Yesterday was an allowance test against horses of all ages in which he stopped the timer in 1:52 4/5 for his mile and one-eighth journey.  Michael Matz, his trainer, announced that if all is well with Nicanor following this race, his next race will most likely be the Virginia Derby on July 18. This would be Nicanor's first stakes action and you can bet there will be added interest in the race simply due to his presence. Colonial Downs is probably salivating at the thought of him entering their starting gate.  

If Nicanor continues to win, one can only imagine the following he would garner. There is already a blog set up on BloodHorse.com that follows his every action, but if he is able to become a stakes caliber horse, he will start to get national attention. Barbaro captured the nation's heart both before and after his injury in the Preakness, and to have his little brother come along and try to pick up the torch where big brother left it off is a story that is just too perfect for the mainstream media to ignore. I know that the odds of him continuing with his winning streak as the races get tougher are much lower than what people think, but the possibility of him running up the win column for the rest of the year is something which I am very excited about. I will certainly be rooting for the little guy, and I hope you will be too.

Post Triple Crown Woes

Well, the Triple Crown races are behind us. The general public will now ignore horse racing until next spring. However, they will be missing out on what is actually the best racing of the year. The quest for the Crown is over. The quest for the Breeder's Cup begins. 

Will Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra ever meet in a race? Will Mine That Bird and Rachel Alexandra ever have a rematch of their Preakness showdown? The best chance of the latter happening is probably in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga. Mine That Bird's connections have already laid out his plan for the second half of the year. He is to race in the West Virginia Derby and then the Travers. Rachel will be going next in the Mother Goose at Belmont on June 27. Somehow, I don't imagine Rachel Alexandra's owner, wine mogul Jess Jackson, shipping her off to Charlestown. However, it would not surprise me in the least if she was then pointed to another showdown with the boys in the Travers. If that turns out to be the case, then the Travers is shaping up to be one heck of a race with the winners of the other 2 triple crown races already pointing towards it as their collective summer goal. 

As for Zenyatta ever meeting Rachel, this is probably not as likely as you may think. Zenyatta's days on dirt are probably over. The Breeder's Cup is in California again this year, so there really is no reason for her to be shipped west to run on non-synthetics, as there are plenty of Southern California races for her to compete in leading up to the Breeder's Cup. Add to that the fact that she has already shown how well she can compete on the synthetic SoCal circuit (i.e her entire career except for one race in Arkansas). As for Rachel Alexandra, no one knows how she would fare on a synthetic surface. She is a queen amongst princesses (and princes!) on dirt, but many a horse has been unsuccessful in transferring their dirt dominance over to synthetic. Curlin is the perfect example. You can be sure that Jess Jackson will want to find out if she can run on synthetic, since he of all people will most certainly be in favor of a showdown of the top 2 females in training. But it will a very tricky decision for sure if there is any doubt, especially after what happened to Curlin last year. 

Those are only 2 of a myriad of questions that I hope get answered over the course of the second half of the year. Hopefully the older male division starts to clear up a bit, but right now your guess is as good as anyone's as to who will become the leader of that pack. 

Final thought - No one on the planet is more excited for the Secretariat movie than I. If there is anywhere in the country that has a midnight showing on opening day, I will be attending. However, I have until 2010 to finalize my plans. Hopefully this upcoming weekend will produce some memorable races. Until then, may your bets be profitable and your oat bags be plentiful.