The Breeder's Cup is slightly less than two months away and there are still many questions to be answered in terms of divisional honors. As I see it, there are only three seasonal awards that are already "locked up" regardless of what happens for the rest of the year, and two of them will most likely go to the same horse. Gio Ponti should win the award for Older Turf Male based on his four straight Grade 1 triumphs. This is a division without another clear standout this year, and regardless of his performance in the Breeder's Cup, he should have the award cinched up. Rachel Alexandra should garner exactly 100% of the votes for Champion 3-year old Filly. Anyone who votes for anyone else should have their voting privileges revoked. Her year has been perfect, and in addition to defeating 3-year old fillies on numerous occasions, she also defeated 3-year old males in the Preakness and Haskell and then dispatched of battle-tested older males in the Woodward Stakes. She is also pretty much a lock for Horse of the Year honors. The only possible scenario that could see her lose HOTY is if she somehow faces Zenyatta before the Breeder's Cup and loses. Furthermore, Zenyatta would then have to go on and win the Breeder's Cup Classic. Being that I don't see this scenario playing out, I think Rachel will probably win HOTY despite the fact that she probably won't even race again until next year.
Ah yes, the Breeder's Cup this year will be missing the best horse in America, if not the world. This is no one's fault except for the Breeder's Cup organization for holding the Championships on a synthetic surface for a second year in a row. Last year, Jess Jackson, owner of Curlin, reluctantly ran Curlin in the Classic over a synthetic surface where he was then trounced by two European turf horses AND Tiago, a horse who he had finished ahead of in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. Mr. Jackson does not want the same thing to happen two years in a row, so he is withholding Rachel from the Breeder's Cup. On a positive note, he has suggested several times that she will return to the races in 2010 in lieu of beginning her career as a broodmare. The Breeder's Cup is scheduled to be run at Churchill Downs next year, a surface on which Rachel won the Kentucky Oaks by a very comfortable twenty lengths. Jess Jackson's ultimate goal for her racing career is surely to cap off her campaign with a win in the 2010 Classic and then send her off to the breeding shed.
Some early Breeder's Cup predictions:
Juvenile Races: Lookin at Lucky and Mi Sueno seem to have the edge right now due to their experience on the California synthetics. No one knows how the horses based in New York will run over the synthetics and this entire division can fluctuate rapidly due to the precociousness of the youngsters, so guessing at this point is pretty fruitless.
Mile: Goldikova seems likely to return and once again destroy the Americans in her defense of last year's win. Unless Gio Ponti chooses this race over the Turf, I don't think any horse currently on this continent stands a chance.
Filly & Mare Sprint: I see this coming down to a two horse race between Informed Decision and Carlsbad. The defending champ, Ventura, has been off for a while, so she may end up lurking in the shadows and then pouncing out of nowhere.
Sprint: Zensational has looked absolutely unbeatable in his last three races. He has won three Grade 1's on synthetics in a row and has the perfect "just try and catch me" running style for the race. It is going to take a huge effort on someone's part or an off day on his part for him to be defeated.
Filly & Mare Turf: Forever Together seems to be in fine shape to defend her title. Who knows what the Europeans will throw at her, but last year this was a race dominated by Americans and it seems that once again, she will be the horse to beat.
Turf: Last year's champ from overseas, Conduit, is likely to return to defend his title, and, as always, there will probably be a fair share of Europeans shipped over for a shot at the $3 million purse. I feel that the best hope for an American victory in this race is not the aforementioned Gio Ponti, but the exciting, runaway speed freak Presious Passion. He has shown an affinity for hard, dried out turf courses, so the rain-less SoCal weather should suit him just fine. His running style of gunning it straight out of the gate and never looking back also throws other horses off their game since he ends up with such a tremendous lead early in the race.
Ladies Classic: If Zenyatta enters here as opposed to against the boys, then this race is hers to lose. If she goes in the Men's Classic, then this race is just about anyone's to win. Your best bet will probably be to look and see who has finished second behind her during her undefeated career, and hope that they can repeat that effort in a Zenyatta-less field.
Classic: Last year, Europeans ran one-two in the classic with America's best horse at the time, Curlin, finishing fourth. This year, our friends from across the pond may bring the brilliant Sea the Stars over for a run at the Classic. Europeans are calling him the best horse to come around in years and if he shows up in the starting gate for the Classic, he will surely be the one to beat. In terms of our best chances, they will probably come in the form of Einstein, Rail trip and maybe even a triumphant return to glory of Tiago. However, if Sea the Stars decides to run and puts forth an effort on the same level he's been running overseas, he will not lose.
I have talked at length before about Rachel Alexandra and how good she is. However, this was before she defeated 3-year old males (again) in the Haskell and then older males in the Woodward. I have only been following horse racing since late 2006 and I can assure you that she is by far the most dominating horse I have had the honor of watching race. My apologies to Curlin, Commentator, Invasor, Bernardini and Zenyatta, but she has no equals right now and the prospect of her returning next year should have everyone else thinking about nothing but second place. Her combination of speed and stamina makes her nearly perfect, and to think that she may actually improve as she grows older and more mature is just downright scary.
